With the Delivery Date Approaching, Lead Prices Stabilize and Consolidate [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,021.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, experienced a slight correction after entering the European session before rising again, touched a high of $2,059/mt, weakened again towards the end of the session, and finally closed at $2,046.5/mt, up $30/mt, a gain of 1.49%. It recorded a bullish candlestick.

On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2602 contract opened at 17,345 yuan/mt, briefly fluctuated rangebound at the beginning of the session before rising slightly, touched a high of 17,435 yuan/mt during the session, then moved steadily throughout, and finally closed at 17,430 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.37%. It formed a small bullish candlestick.

On the macro front:

Trump threatened Cuba that if it does not "reach a deal" soon, it will face a situation of "zero oil, zero funds" flowing into Cuba. Senior Thai financial officials: are considering imposing taxes on gold trading and gold imports, and may set the limit for individual online gold trading at 100 million to 200 million Thai baht. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on January 9, deploying a package of policies to implement fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand. Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration: adjusted the export tax rebate policy for products such as PV, and will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for PV products effective April 1, 2026.

:

SHFE lead showed weak consolidation. Suppliers of primary lead had few warrant quotations, focusing more on selling cargoes self-picked up from the production site. Inventory pressure increased for some smelters, who actively quoted and sold goods. Quotations from mainstream producing areas against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt, with premiums of 100-150 yuan/mt in individual regions. Mainstream tax-included ex-factory quotations for refined lead spot orders against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 225-100 yuan/mt. Mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory quotations for refined lead were 15,600-15,750 yuan/mt. Lead prices fell significantly, leading to polarization in suppliers' selling enthusiasm, with some selling at large discounts and others having low willingness to quote. Downstream enterprises actively inquired, but only some enterprises saw an improvement in purchase willingness compared to the previous day.

Inventory: On January 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,725 mt to 222,725 mt. As of January 8, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions showed an upward trend.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

This week is the delivery week for the most-traded SHFE lead contract. Lead prices are expected to have some room for a slight rebound before delivery. Last week, secondary lead smelters raised their raw material purchase quotations, which improved raw material arrivals at the plant, driving operating rates higher this week. However, downstream battery producers are expected to see lower operating rates and weak purchase willingness for lead ingots. Trading in the market this week is expected to be overall mediocre. Meanwhile, both primary and secondary lead finished product inventories are showing an accumulation trend, which will exert some downward pressure on future lead prices.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.